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Sector Trend Investing use 40 different sectors
made up of thousands of listed stocks
to monitor the market sentiment and help choose entry and exit
points. Having a strong, fundamental and technical investment
style will improve your returns. The market normally hits lows
about twice a year and hits highs about twice a year.
Sector Trend Investing takes advantage of this up and down cycle
to pick entry and exit points. The 40 sectors we monitor
include over 3,000 different stocks and more accurately reflexes
the true market sentiment. By following the sector
sentiment, I am able to look at all the
stocks in each sector to determine if that sector is trending
positive "X" or trending negative "O". |
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OVERBOUGHT: When 30 or more sectors are positive (green), the market is
reaching it's peak (over bought condition) and stocks with
strong fundamentals are reaching their highs. Stocks with
poor fundamentals have been left behind and are seriously
underperforming the market. This is the best time to sell
fundamentally strong stocks (since everyone else is buying at higher and higher
prices).
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OVERSOLD: When 30 or more sectors are negative (red), the
market is reaching it's bottom (over sold condition) and stocks
with strong fundamentals have pulled back to more affordable
(discounted) prices. Stocks with poor fundamentals have hit
new lows and will not recover for years, if ever. This is the
best time to buy fundamentally stocks (since everyone else is selling them at
a deep discount, over-sold condition). Fundamentally
strong companies stock price have come down because of the
market, and not because of the company these stocks represent.
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1. Build a list of
fundamentally strong companies to purchase from. Do not
purchase any stocks that have problems on their balance sheets
or are not a fundamentally strong company.
2. About 80% of your
fundamentally strong companies will actually respond correctly
for you. The 20% that do not perform correctly are "Dogs".
Sell you dogs when the market enters N3 thru the N5 territory on the
Daily Trend Chart (see Sector Trend Investing Chart for
details). Do not let any one transaction run your
portfolio into the ground by taking a signification loss.
Do not reinvest the money into other stocks.
3. I am purchasing stocks
that have pulled back with the market and not because there is a
problem with the company. By purchasing stocks that are
down with the market, we are confident that these stocks will
rally when the market rallies. If we can average a greater
then 10% return on each market cycle, we can expect a greater
then 21% return per year on our portfolio if we average 2 market
cycles per year. This should allow us to double our
portfolio every 3½
years. This investment method could turn a $10,000
investment into almost $80,000 in 10 years.
4. Move your funds to a
deep discount brokerage house. I personally use
Ameritrade and
Scottrade for my funds.
Ameritrade charges me about $11 for a purchase and $11 for a
sale. This makes the "Round Trip" cost of a transaction
$22.
Scottrade charges me $7 for the same purchase
and $7 for a sale. This means that I spend $14 on a "round
trip" transaction. This saves me $8 per transaction.
If I do 12 round trips a year, that saves me almost $100 per
year or $1000 in 10 years.
5. I use Point-N-Figure
charts for all our technical analysis. The best source for
Point-N-Figure charts is
Dorsey Wright. Dorsey Wright is a pay service that is
used by every major financial planner and almost every mutual
fund manager to help them pick their investments. If you
need a free service you can use
Stock Charts.
Stock Charts is very
limited in the information they provide. I have been a
Dorsey Wright.
subscriber for 5 years and have had steady returns for every
year that I have used
Dorsey Wright's charts.
6. Fundamental research is a must to finding good stocks.
Stocks with bad fundamentals will ruin a portfolio. I use
MSN for my
fundamental research. It is quick, easy and free. I
use a 6 -step quick check to find stocks that are conservative
and fundamentally sound. |
B1. Be Patient! Especially
on your buys. Waiting until the market enters the B1 (Buy)
area before purchasing stocks. Do not try to find the
absolute market bottoms. If the Sector Trend Investment
Cycle hits the B1 level, the time to start purchasing your stock
positions has arrived. Take a look at your stock watch
list. Double check the fundamentals and technicals and
move into the market.
B2. Time is running out to
purchase stocks at a deep discount. Finalize all your
stocks positions. If you wait too long you will miss the
best sales of deeply discounted stocks.
N3. Sit back and watch the market climb. Usually the
market moves up quickly from the bottom into the N3 zone and
then steadily continues to improve. Show patience and give
the market time.
N4. Check your portfolio
for
underperforming stocks. If you pick a stock that is not
responding positively with the market getting stronger (cycle
levels N3 thru N5), SELL! Do not hesitate to get rid of
your dogs. If the whole market is moving up and you have
some stocks that are lagging the market, don't let them drag
your portfolio into the negative.
N5. By now the market
should be firing on all cylinders. Again, do not hold any
underperforming stocks. If you have any stocks that are
negative, liquidate them. Check your overall position
improvements.
S6. If the Sector Trend
Investment Cycle enters the S6 level, start considering selling
part or all of your positions. By now you should have than
a 10% return on your good picks. Your Dogs should be long
into your past without much damage. Exercise patience.
If you start worrying about your portfolio going do and losing
any of your gains, take some of them off the table.
S7. If the STI cycle enters
the S7 level, SELL! Do not try get greedy by trying to
time the market tops. Liquidate your stock positions.
Do not overstay the market. If you don't sell your
positions, you are risking loosing all the gains you made this
cycle. To be a pig. Don't gamble with your
portfolio. Lock-in your gains and take a rest.
S8. Start building that
list of fundamentally strong stocks that you will be purchasing
from for the next cycle. Try to build a list of 20 to 30
stocks. This list you will use to pick 6 to 10
fundamentally strong stocks when the market enters the B1 level. |